Saturday, December 31, 2005

About a week ago, I started tracking www.technorati.com to get an idea on blog trends in technology. While a week is too short to get any data on trends, I came across some interesting findings (similar to the Open Source trends I have been following using Yahoo APIs) about what's popular among bloggers.

Some observations:

* MSN is almost as popular as Google and much more than Yahoo – The search for word MSN resulted in 2.02 million results compared with 2.03 for Google and 1.74 million for Yahoo.

* Debian is by far the most popular Linux distribution followed by Ubuntu.

* Nokia 770 is gaining some popularity with about 4,200 results.

* XBOX 360 is the most popular among the new generation game consoles but PS3 is not far behind.

Friday, December 30, 2005

Market share of Operating System and Browsers


When it comes to market share for desktop operating systems, Microsoft probably has about 95% and definitely more than 90% of the OEM share.

But most Linux distributions are installed (single, dual, and multi boots) on machines originally purchased with a Microsoft OS. Also, end users change their Windows machine more often than Mac and Linux users. So, the OEM market share info may not my be the right guage.

And if you are designing a Web site, the other problem that could arise is that a particular Website may have a very different user base.

For instance, a Website dedicated to Web design recently said that 6% of its users came to their site using Safari. My interpretation is that the total number of Mac users (including FireFox and IE) was much higher.

So, about two weeks ago, I put a site counter on two of my blogs to get an idea the OS and browsers people use to come to those blogs. One of the blogs is mainly used to post interesting stories from www.digg.com. The other is used to post my thoughts, opinion and observations on economy, technology, finance, philosophy, globalization, etc.

I have regularly monitored the visitors, their referring URLs, their OS and the browser they use.

About 250 visitors have visited the two blogs so far – a fairly good sample size, I would say. So far, I have been pleasantly surprised. Here are some quick numbers: About 61% of the visitors use FireFox, 27% IE, 8.5% Safari and the remaining Opera and Netscape. In OS: 73% is Windows, 15% Mac and about 12% for Linux.

Thursday, December 29, 2005

Instead of a To Do list, try a bubble map

Interesting concept about drawing a bubble map. There's also a hack here to improve your productivity.



Wednesday, December 28, 2005



Saturday, December 24, 2005

Paris Trip Photos:



Château de Versailles

Château de Versailles

Arc de Triomphe

Château de Versailles

Champs-Elysees

IMG008

Musee du Louvre

Musee du Louvre

Eiffel Tower

Eiffel Tower

The City of Paris

IMG015

Paris business district

IMG017

a glimpse of Paris from top of the Eiffel Tower

a glimpse of Paris from top of the Eiffel Tower



Posted by QuickrPickr

Arc de Triomphe


Arc de Triomphe
Originally uploaded by rajivvyas.
Arc de Triomphe in the night.

Château de Versailles


IMG005
Originally uploaded by rajivvyas.
Château de Versailles at about 5 pm. The palace is ridiculously huge and opulent.

Tuesday, December 20, 2005



2006 Predictions


The new year is less than two weeks away. Here are some predictions:

Search

Google will lose market share to almost everyone but mainly A9.com, Alexa, Ask, Clusty, MSN and Yahoo. I would say that by the end of '06, Google's market share of pure search (done through Google.com) will be down at least 4%.

In terms of stocks, I think Yahoo or Amazon are likely to outperform Google by a wide margin.

Google's stock price will be below its 2005 peak.

Alexa will change (almost completely) the dynamics of search.

www.clusty.com or Vivisimo (the parent company) will be bought. Likely contenders: A9, Yahoo or MSN. Even Ask could by this clustering company.

Yahoo of Google will add wiki like note taking feature to their email service.

Google will launch (first half) calendering functions to Gmail.

MSN Live won't live up to expectations but MSN will gain 2% point market share in search.

Currently, www.A9.com is ranked around 1,300 by www.alexa.com in terms of site ranking and www.clusty.com is around 4.000. a9.com could easily in be in the top 100 by the end of the year and clusty in the top 1,000. (Updated December 31 at 11.40 pm)




Technology

Novell could start gaining some traction in sales of Linux as well as stock price; is likely to outperform Red Hat.

Sun Microsystems is likely to do well – in terms of stabilizing Unix sales, increasing storage sales and sales of Niagara.

FireFox market share gain will stabilize around 15-18% globally from around 10% in December 05.

Windows Vista will be the biggest disaster in Microsoft's OS history. The operating system is too taxing on the hardware and hence machines bundled with Vista will be as expensive, if not more, than Mac X. My guess is that PC prices could be at least $100 more because of more memory and processing requirements.

Apple's Mac X will continue gaining market share and could easily top 5% of global shipment – partly because the machines will be very competitively priced compared with HP and Dell.

Linux will gain market share as well, this time at the expense of Vista. The price difference between a Vista PC and a PC installed with Linux will be at least $200. So, on desktops, the gains will come from more low end sales.

HP will increase its share of PCs.

Acer will continue marching into Europe, Asia and even the U.S. at the expense of Dell.

Lenovo should do slightly better than the industry.

Dell would do slightly worse than the industry.

PS3 will be a major hit.

Nintendo Revolution will be the dark horse -- if not No. 1, it will be the No. 2 selling console by the end of next year.

Microsoft will be dealing with four major flops: Vista, Live, XBox and Office 12.

Misc


GM is likely to get closer to bankruptcy.

Hyundai and Toyota will continue to be the most exciting car companies.

Ford may announce some senior level management change – they will continue to flounder in the U.S. and Europe.


Finance and Economics

After nearly an 18-month lull, I'll finally have some more ADR recommendations on www.adrinvestor.com

Returns on S&P – between 2% and 8%.

Emerging markets will outperform the U.S. and Europe.

Microsoft's stock will again underperform the index; Dell also.

Japan will outperform the U.S. – returning close to 20% returns

Chinese stocks will do very well

Sun Microsoft's stocks is likely cross $8

Emerging Market bonds five year streak should come to an end and will do poorly


Publishing


Blogs will continue to gain popularity. Technorati, which currently searches 23 million blogs will have more than 35 million.

Blogs will start consolidating i.e. there will be blogs that will have mass following.

Newspapers will continue to lose circulation; they will focus more on their Website to prevent readers switching to blogs – they will succeed in terms of higher Web viewer ship but fail in generating revenues.

At least three major newspapers will report substantial (5% of more) decline in circulation.

Because of its conservative leaning, Detroit News will see gains in circulation -- despite the strong unionized workforce, Michigan almost went Republican in the 2004 election.

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Linux

Looks like KDE had a field day. First Linus Torvalds comes and asks people to use KDE and not GNOME . And then, KDE announced opening their Indian operations in Banglore.


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This Blog was written using word processor www.openoffice.org on Ubuntu Linux operating system (www.ubuntulinux.org) and the www.flock.com Internet Web browser.

Search

After the Alexa announcement today (comments here), I am more or less convinced that it's going to be very very hard for companies to have a monopoly or even a dominant market share position in the Internet era. AOL dominated the Web and as an ISP for about five years (1994-1999), Yahoo dominated as a portal for about the same time – although, during that time Excite and Lycos were also dominant. And Google has had a significant presence in the search business for couple of years now. But with players like www.A9.com, www.alexa.com, www.ask.com, www.snap.com and www.clusty.com, Google could soon see its market share being chipped away. Amazon, which probably no one would have imagined as playing any role in the search business, has now emerged as the dark horse that could shake the industry. Time magazine named A9 as one of the 50 coolest Web sites in 2005 – Google didn't make it. What's even more interesting is that Google Maps, which revolutionized mapping, even didn't make it – Yahoo did. Yahoo's new beta Map is worth checking out. Yahoo has also improved its search functionality quite a lot and is probably today at par with Google or even better. They recently launched siteexplorer function which is neat. Won't be surprised if Google shows a drop in market share in search this quarter or next.

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This Blog was written using word processor www.openoffice.org on Ubuntu Linux operating system (www.ubuntulinux.org) and the www.flock.com Internet Web browser.



Economy



According to Reuters story : China surpassed the United States as the world's biggest exporter of laptop computers, mobile phones and other information and communications technology goods in 2004, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Monday.



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This Blog was written using word processor www.openoffice.org on Ubuntu Linux operating system (www.ubuntulinux.org) and the Internet Web browser used was FireFox (http://www.mozilla.org/products/firefox/)

Monday, December 12, 2005










Sunday, December 11, 2005

Search

This Blog gives market share details of search engines and even emails.

Search

Thanks to the book "The Search" I found the www.a9.com toolbar. I like some of the features it has, particularly "Diary" and "History". Yahoo as well as Google don't offer these features.


Plus if I use A9 regulalry, I would get some discount on www.Amazon.com purchases. Great stuff: I get Google results, fancy tool bars, wikipedia results and discount on Amazon purchases. Difficult to beat that.


***

This Blog was written and published using Internet browser www.flock.com on Ubuntu Linux operating system (www.ubuntulinux.org).

Open Source Trends

Being a supporter of FOSS and GNU/Linux, I have been curious for a while to know/find out its penetration and also whether FOSS and GNU/Linux are getting more popular than other proprietary offerings.

There are various statistics on this, but I thought a better way to find this would be their Web presence. I wasn’t sure how to proceed with this. Some people on forums suggested I try Google Alert. Another programmer said he would write a python code for me that would screen scrape Google for information. None of these appealed to me as I knew my project will be evolving over time and would have many queries and data will have to be mined for more information.

About a month ago, a friend of mine wrote a python script that uses Yahoo APIs. This looks appealing. I run this script every few days to download information on how many times a particular keyword appears on the Web, news and podcast. Currently, the search removes for duplicates, but Yahoo’s definition of duplicates is very vague, so I am not sure whether I should allow Yahoo to remove for duplicates or should I just get the data for the search results and plot trends.

Here’s are some trends between November 17 and December 8 that might be interesting:

Operation system:

Microsoft’s Web presence increased by 5.6% compared with Linux 1.7% for Linux

Microsoft has been more or less consistent in terms of news items at around 12,000, while Vista and Linux have seen a declining trend. That could be because Microsoft offers many projects besides its XP OS and the upcoming Vista.

For podcasts, Microsoft’s presence grew by 8.1% vs. 3.1% for “Microsoft Vista” and 5.2% for Linux. This is significant for Linux because while Linux is an OS, the search word for Microsoft includes many other products besides the XP and 2000 OS. Clearly, with podcasters and even news folks, Linux is more popular than the Vista. I might add “Microsoft XP” search to the script to get a more accurate picture in the future.

Within Linux, the Web trends gets very interesting. Keywords “Linux and China” grew by 40% followed by “Linux India” at 31%. “Linux India” was also in the news a lot because of Foss.in event that attracted 2,700 people.


Want to know which Linux distribution is gaining Web share? Ubuntu (27%) followed by Mandriva (19%). In terms of numbers, Ubuntu with 439,392 search results has already surpassed Mandriva (261,231) and Knoppix (258,676). Ubuntu has also been more popular with news folks than Mandriva, Knoppix and even Debian. And it's the most popular with podcasters than any other Linux distribution, including RH and SuSE.



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This Blog was written using word processor www.openoffice.org on Ubuntu Linux operating system (www.ubuntulinux.org) and the Internet Web browser used was FireFox (http://www.mozilla.org/products/firefox/)

Browser

Browser





Worth trying: www.flock.com



The browser is very neat and helpful if you use social bookmarking and are an avid blogger.



There was a story posted on digg.com that had statistics about
a particular Web page that digg users went to. Interestingly, 68% or so
used Mozilla-based browsers and Windows' (including 95 and ME) share
was only 86% with Mac accounting for 8.5% and Unix the rest. The next
couple of years is going to see some interesting competition among
search engines (Google, Yahoo, AskJeeves, A9 and MSN), browser
(Mozilla-based, IE, and Safari), and OS (Mac, Linux and Windows).

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This
Blog was written and published using Internet browser www.flock.com on Ubuntu
Linux operating system (www.ubuntulinux.org).

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

At the Eiffel Towers in night. Posted by Picasa

Friday, December 02, 2005

What Newspapers Should Do To Improve Their Circulation

An interesting write up from Slashdot writer and editor on decline in newspaper circulation.

read more | digg story

Highest Paying Jobs Are In The East Coast

People may be migrating from the East Coast may to the South and West, but many of the high-paying jobs are still in the East Coast.

read more | digg story

What Newspapers Should Do To Improve Their Circulation

An interesting write up from Slashdot writer and editor on decline in newspaper circulation.

read more | digg story

A very good quote and paragraph from an Obituary The Economist wrote on Richard Smalley, a Nobel laureate and champion of nanotechnology who died on October 28, 2005. As he grew older, however, he became more convinced that science could do little or nothing to explain the world of spirituality. The more he learned, the more he realised that even the cleverest scientist understood only the tip of the material iceberg. “So how”, he wondered, “can we know what we cannot even see?”
The full story can be found here:
http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?story_id=5135349&subjectid=348996
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This Blog was written using word processor www.openoffice.org on Ubuntu Linux operating system (www.ubuntulinux.org) and the Internet Web browser used was FireFox (http://www.mozilla.org/products/firefox/)